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Verflixter ROI
Microsofts Weg vom Optimieren der Fanseite zur Erfolgsmessung



                                          Marco	
  Rinne	
  (marinn@microso/.com)	
  04/16/2012	
  
Key takeaways

  1.  There already are economic concepts to deal with social media ROI


  2.  Non-financial outcomes only help optimizing social media activities


  3.  Opportunity costs as ROI “workaround” help to select among
      alternative investments


  4.  ROI is defined by (financial) gains


  5.  Affiliate marketing, advertising and/or social commerce can be valid
      approaches to financial gains and to social media ROI (where applicable)
The “new” digital marketing: paid, owned and earned media

                                 MS.COM	
                                  E-­‐Mail	
  NewsleQer	
  


                  msn.de	
  
                                                                                                    Events,	
  Messen	
  
                                                        OWNED	
  
                                                        MEDIA	
  
                                                            Microso/	
  
Microso/	
  Partner	
                                       Channels	
                                        Microso/	
  Foren,	
  
   Ecosystem	
                                                                                               Newsgroups,	
  Blogs,	
  
                                                                                                               CommuniJes	
  
                                          PAID	
                            EARNED	
  
Search	
  Engine	
                       MEDIA	
                             MEDIA	
  
  MarkeJng	
                            3rd	
  Party/	
                    Community/	
                           Neutrale	
  
                                       Commercial	
                        Social	
  Media	
                    CommuniJes,	
  	
  
                                                                                                                 Foren	
  etc.	
  


                                                                                                             Blogs,	
  
           Display	
  AdverJsing	
                                                                         Microblogs	
  
                                                                                  Social	
  Networks	
  
Economic concepts behind social media ROI



       Opportunity Costs
                                    Friedrich von Wieser (November 1914)
                                 “Theorie der gesellschaftlichen Wirtschaft”
                                              (Theory of Social Economics)



   “Opportunity cost is the cost of any activity measured in terms of the
     value of the next best alternative foregone (that is not chosen).”
                                                               (Wikipedia 01/12)
Economic concepts behind social media ROI




The problem(s) we face:

•  What’s the precise value of a social activity as a “next best
   alternative” (opportunity costs)

•  How do you calculate the gain from a social media investment?
   (to use it in the ROI formula)
Measuring social media objectives

Exposure/                  Action/
            Engagement                (Advocacy)
Awareness                Conversion
Measuring social media objectives
  Counting Facebook fans

                                                                    Example: Development of German Windows fan page
40000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6000
                                                                                                                                                         Xbox DE Coop:
35000
                                                                                                                                                         advent calendar                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5000
30000                                                                                                                                                        action
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4000
25000

20000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3000

15000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2000
10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1000
5000

   0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0
        12/1/2010

                    12/3/2010

                                12/5/2010

                                            12/7/2010

                                                        12/9/2010

                                                                    12/11/2010

                                                                                 12/13/2010

                                                                                              12/15/2010

                                                                                                           12/17/2010

                                                                                                                        12/19/2010

                                                                                                                                     12/21/2010

                                                                                                                                                  12/23/2010

                                                                                                                                                               12/25/2010

                                                                                                                                                                            12/27/2010

                                                                                                                                                                                         12/29/2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                      12/31/2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1/2/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1/4/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1/6/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1/8/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1/10/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1/12/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/14/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1/16/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1/18/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1/20/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/22/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1/24/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1/26/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1/28/2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1/30/2011
                                            Täglich Neue „Gefällt mir“-Angaben                                                                                                 Täglich Gefällt mir nicht mehr                                                                           Laufzeit „Gefällt mir“ insgesamt
Measuring social media objectives
   Monthly growth rates and polynomial trend of Facebook fan page and German
   brands on Facebook (Top 11-20)
30000                                                                                                                      140000



                                                                                                                           120000
25000


                                                                                                                           100000
20000

                                                                                                                           80000

15000

                                                                                                                           60000

10000
                                                                                                                           40000


5000
                                                                                                                           20000



   0                                                                                                                       0
        9 10      10 10     11 10     12 10        1 11    2 11         3 11        4 11          5 11         6 11

           New Fans       Lost Fans      Fans (total)     German FB Brands (avg.)          Trend polynominal (R² = 0,96)
Measuring social media objectives
      Tracking #likes, #comments and #wallposts

            Activity / Engagement on German Windows Facebook fan page
800                                                                                                         1.20


700
                                                                                                            1.00

600

                                                                                                            0.80
500


400                                                                                                         0.60


300
                                                                                                            0.40

200

                                                                                                            0.20
100


  0                                                                                                         0.00
 9/1/2010     10/1/2010   11/1/2010            12/1/2010         1/1/2011             2/1/2011   3/1/2011


                                 Daily Likes         Daily Comments         Daily Wall Posts
Measuring social media objectives
How users utilize the different forms of engagement on Facebook…


             [Example] Engagement-Index (Windows Deutsch) - January - March 2011
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
        1/1/2011
        1/3/2011
        1/5/2011
        1/7/2011
        1/9/2011
       1/11/2011
       1/13/2011
       1/15/2011
       1/17/2011
       1/19/2011
       1/21/2011
       1/23/2011
       1/25/2011
       1/27/2011
       1/29/2011
       1/31/2011
        2/2/2011
        2/4/2011
        2/6/2011
        2/8/2011
       2/10/2011
       2/12/2011
       2/14/2011
       2/16/2011
       2/18/2011
       2/20/2011
       2/22/2011
       2/24/2011
       2/26/2011
       2/28/2011
        3/2/2011
        3/4/2011
        3/6/2011
        3/8/2011
       3/10/2011
       3/12/2011
       3/14/2011
       3/16/2011
       3/18/2011
       3/20/2011
       3/22/2011
       3/24/2011
       3/26/2011
       3/28/2011
       3/30/2011
                              Engagement-Index   Linear(Engagement-Index)


                                0.1 * #likes + 0.3 * #comments + 0.6 * #shares
engagement index =
                                        page posts impressions (unique)


       comments and shares normally are the more valuable form of engagement
Measuring social media objectives

Though the data is still available this index doesn’t scale well anymore…



                                            … we’re evaluating a new index.

                                           storytellers – fan adds (unique)
                                                                            · 100
                                          page posts impressions (unique)




    Windows (deutsch) graph API excerpt
The transition to financial metrics

 Exposure/                   Action/
             Engagement                 (Advocacy)
 Awareness                 Conversion
The transition to financial metrics

                                          total invest in SoMe platform
  Exposure    cost per fan =
                                       # new fans in campaign timeframe


                                          total invest in SoMe platform
 Engagement   cost per engagement =
                                      # comments + # likes in c. timeframe


                                           total invest in SoMe platform
   Action     cost per action =
                                    i.e. # downloads in campaign timeframe


                                          total invest in SoMe platform
 (Advocacy)   cost per referral =
                                       # referrals in campaign timeframe
The transition to financial metrics
Windows Campaigns Q1-3 FY 11/H2	
  
                       	
                FY 11/H2	
         FY 11/H2	
         FY 11/H1	
  
                                                                                              financial metrics (avg.)
Campaign (Digital)	
   Bridge	
          Holiday	
          Holiday	
          BTS	
  
                                  	
                 	
                 	
             	
  
                                                                                              Windows campaigns (digital) Q1-3
Media Status	
  
Budget total	
  
Budget spent	
  
Traffic Drivers Off-Net (paid)	
  
Display (Banner-Placement)	
  
Budget spent	
                                                                                  cost per ad impression
Ad impressions	
  

Clicks (Initial responses)	
  
Initial responses rate (CTR
%)	
  
                                                                                                cost per click
CPC €	
  
Primary Conversions
(global&local)	
  
Primary CR%	
                                                                                   cost per action
CPA €	
  
SEM (Holiday ab KW 47)	
  
Budget spent	
  
Clicks	
  
                                                                                                cost per click (SEA)
CPC €	
  
Primary Conversions
                                                                                                cost per action (SEA)
(global&local)	
  
Primary CR%	
  
CPA €	
  
Total (Display+SEM)	
  
CPC €	
  
CPA €	
  
The transition to financial metrics
An integrated campaign view (no either-or decision)
              Digital marketing-mix in „real life“ campaign (one possible approach)



                                                                               earned
 investment




                                                                               owned




                                                                               paid
                         „integrated“ digital campaign timeframe
The transition to financial gains
               Website	
  vs.	
  Social	
  Media	
  
The transition to financial gains
Facebook XBOX DE affiliate marketing example




                                                Amazon
                                               media coop
The transition to financial gains
Amazon.de „Cyber Monday“ Coop




    Call for Vote      Facebook Engagement                 Limited offer
     Dashboard           Choose 1 of 3 products          Order Units = Votes
     Facebook        Timeline post for winning product
    Communities            Timeline affiliate link
The transition to financial gains (social commerce)

Social commerce opportunities on Facebook …




                                              source: JWT Social Commerce Trend Report Jul11
                                                       US/UK online survey n=971 (adults 20+)
The transition to financial gains (social commerce)




Facebook is theoretically well positioned to address something that the
Internet has been notoriously bad at supporting: product discovery.
But the key challenge is that Facebook is about socializing rather than
shopping. […] Facebook stores are unable to replicate the full brand
experience of a company’s official website […]
Sucharita Mulupuru, Forrester Analyst
The transition to financial gains (social commerce)
Windows PC Corner: Social Commerce approach
(some) pros and cons of this approach

                 PROS                                       CONS
                                           Model doesn‘t scale too well
                                           •  no ready-to-use tools
Social media can be evaluated and
                                           •  data has to be collected semi-
compared within the „paid, owned,
                                              automatic
earned“-model
                                           •  manual comparison of paid owned
                                              earned

Use of existing (and proven) ROI           „hard“ ROI definition relies on alienable
definitions                                goods/services

Evaluation in financial metrics on cost    Opportunity costs approach needs
and revenue side possible                  automated order/invoice system

No need to search for patterns in social
                                           Baseline measurement necessary
„soft“ metrics and transactional data
Key takeaways

  1.  There already are economic concepts to deal with social media ROI


  2.  Non-financial outcomes only help optimizing social media activities


  3.  Opportunity costs as ROI “workaround” help to select the best
      investment alternative


  4.  ROI is defined by (financial) gains


  5.  Affiliate marketing, advertising and/or social commerce can be valid
      approaches to financial gains and to social media ROI (where applicable)

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Verflixter ROI - Microsofts Weg vom Optimieren der Fanseite zur Erfolgsmessung (@AllFacebook Marketing Conference)

  • 1. Verflixter ROI Microsofts Weg vom Optimieren der Fanseite zur Erfolgsmessung Marco  Rinne  (marinn@microso/.com)  04/16/2012  
  • 2. Key takeaways 1.  There already are economic concepts to deal with social media ROI 2.  Non-financial outcomes only help optimizing social media activities 3.  Opportunity costs as ROI “workaround” help to select among alternative investments 4.  ROI is defined by (financial) gains 5.  Affiliate marketing, advertising and/or social commerce can be valid approaches to financial gains and to social media ROI (where applicable)
  • 3. The “new” digital marketing: paid, owned and earned media MS.COM   E-­‐Mail  NewsleQer   msn.de   Events,  Messen   OWNED   MEDIA   Microso/   Microso/  Partner   Channels   Microso/  Foren,   Ecosystem   Newsgroups,  Blogs,   CommuniJes   PAID   EARNED   Search  Engine   MEDIA   MEDIA   MarkeJng   3rd  Party/   Community/   Neutrale   Commercial   Social  Media   CommuniJes,     Foren  etc.   Blogs,   Display  AdverJsing   Microblogs   Social  Networks  
  • 4. Economic concepts behind social media ROI Opportunity Costs Friedrich von Wieser (November 1914) “Theorie der gesellschaftlichen Wirtschaft” (Theory of Social Economics) “Opportunity cost is the cost of any activity measured in terms of the value of the next best alternative foregone (that is not chosen).” (Wikipedia 01/12)
  • 5. Economic concepts behind social media ROI The problem(s) we face: •  What’s the precise value of a social activity as a “next best alternative” (opportunity costs) •  How do you calculate the gain from a social media investment? (to use it in the ROI formula)
  • 6. Measuring social media objectives Exposure/ Action/ Engagement (Advocacy) Awareness Conversion
  • 7. Measuring social media objectives Counting Facebook fans Example: Development of German Windows fan page 40000 6000 Xbox DE Coop: 35000 advent calendar 5000 30000 action 4000 25000 20000 3000 15000 2000 10000 1000 5000 0 0 12/1/2010 12/3/2010 12/5/2010 12/7/2010 12/9/2010 12/11/2010 12/13/2010 12/15/2010 12/17/2010 12/19/2010 12/21/2010 12/23/2010 12/25/2010 12/27/2010 12/29/2010 12/31/2010 1/2/2011 1/4/2011 1/6/2011 1/8/2011 1/10/2011 1/12/2011 1/14/2011 1/16/2011 1/18/2011 1/20/2011 1/22/2011 1/24/2011 1/26/2011 1/28/2011 1/30/2011 Täglich Neue „Gefällt mir“-Angaben Täglich Gefällt mir nicht mehr Laufzeit „Gefällt mir“ insgesamt
  • 8. Measuring social media objectives Monthly growth rates and polynomial trend of Facebook fan page and German brands on Facebook (Top 11-20) 30000 140000 120000 25000 100000 20000 80000 15000 60000 10000 40000 5000 20000 0 0 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 1 11 2 11 3 11 4 11 5 11 6 11 New Fans Lost Fans Fans (total) German FB Brands (avg.) Trend polynominal (R² = 0,96)
  • 9. Measuring social media objectives Tracking #likes, #comments and #wallposts Activity / Engagement on German Windows Facebook fan page 800 1.20 700 1.00 600 0.80 500 400 0.60 300 0.40 200 0.20 100 0 0.00 9/1/2010 10/1/2010 11/1/2010 12/1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 Daily Likes Daily Comments Daily Wall Posts
  • 10. Measuring social media objectives How users utilize the different forms of engagement on Facebook… [Example] Engagement-Index (Windows Deutsch) - January - March 2011 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1/1/2011 1/3/2011 1/5/2011 1/7/2011 1/9/2011 1/11/2011 1/13/2011 1/15/2011 1/17/2011 1/19/2011 1/21/2011 1/23/2011 1/25/2011 1/27/2011 1/29/2011 1/31/2011 2/2/2011 2/4/2011 2/6/2011 2/8/2011 2/10/2011 2/12/2011 2/14/2011 2/16/2011 2/18/2011 2/20/2011 2/22/2011 2/24/2011 2/26/2011 2/28/2011 3/2/2011 3/4/2011 3/6/2011 3/8/2011 3/10/2011 3/12/2011 3/14/2011 3/16/2011 3/18/2011 3/20/2011 3/22/2011 3/24/2011 3/26/2011 3/28/2011 3/30/2011 Engagement-Index Linear(Engagement-Index) 0.1 * #likes + 0.3 * #comments + 0.6 * #shares engagement index = page posts impressions (unique) comments and shares normally are the more valuable form of engagement
  • 11. Measuring social media objectives Though the data is still available this index doesn’t scale well anymore… … we’re evaluating a new index. storytellers – fan adds (unique) · 100 page posts impressions (unique) Windows (deutsch) graph API excerpt
  • 12. The transition to financial metrics Exposure/ Action/ Engagement (Advocacy) Awareness Conversion
  • 13. The transition to financial metrics total invest in SoMe platform Exposure cost per fan = # new fans in campaign timeframe total invest in SoMe platform Engagement cost per engagement = # comments + # likes in c. timeframe total invest in SoMe platform Action cost per action = i.e. # downloads in campaign timeframe total invest in SoMe platform (Advocacy) cost per referral = # referrals in campaign timeframe
  • 14. The transition to financial metrics Windows Campaigns Q1-3 FY 11/H2     FY 11/H2   FY 11/H2   FY 11/H1   financial metrics (avg.) Campaign (Digital)   Bridge   Holiday   Holiday   BTS           Windows campaigns (digital) Q1-3 Media Status   Budget total   Budget spent   Traffic Drivers Off-Net (paid)   Display (Banner-Placement)   Budget spent   cost per ad impression Ad impressions   Clicks (Initial responses)   Initial responses rate (CTR %)   cost per click CPC €   Primary Conversions (global&local)   Primary CR%   cost per action CPA €   SEM (Holiday ab KW 47)   Budget spent   Clicks   cost per click (SEA) CPC €   Primary Conversions cost per action (SEA) (global&local)   Primary CR%   CPA €   Total (Display+SEM)   CPC €   CPA €  
  • 15. The transition to financial metrics
  • 16. An integrated campaign view (no either-or decision) Digital marketing-mix in „real life“ campaign (one possible approach) earned investment owned paid „integrated“ digital campaign timeframe
  • 17. The transition to financial gains Website  vs.  Social  Media  
  • 18. The transition to financial gains Facebook XBOX DE affiliate marketing example Amazon media coop
  • 19. The transition to financial gains Amazon.de „Cyber Monday“ Coop Call for Vote Facebook Engagement Limited offer Dashboard Choose 1 of 3 products Order Units = Votes Facebook Timeline post for winning product Communities Timeline affiliate link
  • 20. The transition to financial gains (social commerce) Social commerce opportunities on Facebook … source: JWT Social Commerce Trend Report Jul11 US/UK online survey n=971 (adults 20+)
  • 21. The transition to financial gains (social commerce) Facebook is theoretically well positioned to address something that the Internet has been notoriously bad at supporting: product discovery. But the key challenge is that Facebook is about socializing rather than shopping. […] Facebook stores are unable to replicate the full brand experience of a company’s official website […] Sucharita Mulupuru, Forrester Analyst
  • 22. The transition to financial gains (social commerce) Windows PC Corner: Social Commerce approach
  • 23. (some) pros and cons of this approach PROS CONS Model doesn‘t scale too well •  no ready-to-use tools Social media can be evaluated and •  data has to be collected semi- compared within the „paid, owned, automatic earned“-model •  manual comparison of paid owned earned Use of existing (and proven) ROI „hard“ ROI definition relies on alienable definitions goods/services Evaluation in financial metrics on cost Opportunity costs approach needs and revenue side possible automated order/invoice system No need to search for patterns in social Baseline measurement necessary „soft“ metrics and transactional data
  • 24. Key takeaways 1.  There already are economic concepts to deal with social media ROI 2.  Non-financial outcomes only help optimizing social media activities 3.  Opportunity costs as ROI “workaround” help to select the best investment alternative 4.  ROI is defined by (financial) gains 5.  Affiliate marketing, advertising and/or social commerce can be valid approaches to financial gains and to social media ROI (where applicable)